If you've ever been gridlocked in a group decision-making process, you know how quickly things can go from frustrating to downright unwieldy. Even with a common goal in mind, it's easy to get bogged down in data and competing opinions. Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) is an open source application that's been helping the CIA with its research methodologies for years and it's freely available to the public to help groups look at -- and solve -- problems objectively.
"A natural human tendency is to give more weight to information that supports our favorite hypothesis than to information that weakens it. This is unfortunate, as we should do just the opposite," notes Richards Heuer, creator of the ACH software notes on the Web site. ACH avoids this particular temptation by allowing users to enter and evaluate data within the context of the targeted goal. The group can work with one large table of data points, or create individual tables and let ACH merge them into one large one that identifies points of contention within the group.
ACH is a complex piece of software but it's interface is quite user-friendly. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, let's take a look at some screen shots.
Here's what an empty table looks like -- in this instance the demo is set up to accept data points concerning a person suspected of spying. The evidence is detailed along the left-hand column while the proposed hypothesis are outlined in the horizontal are at the top.
Users then assess the consistency of the evidence as it relates to each hypothesis to determine its validity.
Once each group member completes their assessment, the app sorts out where there is consensus, where there is dispute, and to what level users disagree.
The practical application of software like ACH within the FOSS community is easy to see. In team development projects, particularly those whose members are flung across the globe, a tool like this could save months of headaches, frustration, and discord by giving groups a concrete way to identify issues and areas of disagreement.
Tags: ach, problem solving
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